More fun in Iran

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Iran has broken the seals on nuclear equipment monitored by United Nations inspectors and is once again building and testing machines that could make fissile material for nuclear weapons. Teheran's move, revealed to The Daily Telegraph yesterday by western sources, breaks a deal with European countries under which Iran suspended "all uranium enrichment activity".

Iran remains determined to acquire nuclear weapons and stopping them will be difficult. North Korea is widely seen to be able to negotiate with the United States without fear because it possesses these weapons and Iran has obvious motives to join the club. I think Iran is making a mistake here though. North Korea is in a pretty good negotiating position despite, not because it has nukes. The problem is that North Korea could do a lot of damage to South Korea with just its conventional force. Sure, it would lose the conflict, but Kim Chong-il is crazy enough that he might do it anyway. If it wasn’t for his nuclear program we would just ignore him and, sadly, let him go on brutalizing his people. Iran doesn’t have those advantages, and I expect that some sort of military retaliation will either be launched by the United States or Israel before the end of the year if the diplomatic situation doesn’t drastically change. Still, this will not be a full scale invasion and while it may destroy some of the infrastructure, this will not stop the Iranian nuclear program. One possibly valid criticism of the War in Iraq is that it distracted from more serious dangers such as Iran. I look at Iraq as the critical first step toward Iran (if a non-military solution cannot be found) and as a way of making peaceful transition to democracy in Iran more likely. I can certainly understand those who do not share this view however. What is clear is that Iran and North Korea will both be serious threats that have to be dealt with in the next four years. I would like to hear more from the democrats during their convention what their plans for these two troubled regions are. (note: enlisting allies and broadening the coalition is not a plan, it is a goal)