Demographics is Destiny

This AEI article on demographics is an interesting read. The last section of the article is on American exceptionalism to the demographic trends prevalent in the rest of the developed world.

So how can we explain this fertility discrepancy? Possibly it is a matter of attitudes and outlook. There are big revealed differences between Americans and Europeans regarding a number of important life values. Survey results highlighted in The Economist (November 2003) point to some of these. Americans tend to identify the role of government as "providing freedom," while Europeans are inclined to think of government in terms of "guaranteeing one's needs." Attitudes about individualism, patriotism, and religiosity seem to separate Americans from much of the rest of the developed world. Is it entirely coincidental that these divergences seem to track with the big cleavages between fertility levels in the United States and so much of the rest of the developed world?

While the causes of this phenomenom are a mystery, a few of the effects are fairly obvious. Any nation with a below replacement fertility value will naturally have a declining level of economic and military power over time. Fewer workers, and more elderly to care for will place a huge challenge on the governments of these countries. Challenges that are otherwise impossible to ignore. Even more intrigueing is the fact that many of the nations with declining population are, relative to world values, sparsely populated. As they continue to empty out, one would expect immigration of one form or another to move in. If the new population is not assimilated into the previous culture (through unwillingness on the part of the host country to accept them or a change so rapid that assimilation works in the opposite direction) these countries national characters may drastically change. Another demographic trend that is troubling is the disparity of the male-female ratio, especially in countries such as China. Currently 120 boys are born for every 100 girls. The effects of this trend are difficult to know with certainty but they are unlikely to be positive. In a couple of decades there will be millions of chinese men who will either have to resign themselves to not having a wife or seek their wives outside their own nation. It is hard to imagine either alternative being very palatable to the majority and doubtless this will lead to wide unrest. Of course, the other solution is if 1 in 6 young chinese men were to die. Widespread warfare could cause this outcome, but that is certainly not an solution to hope for.