Boom Boom Boom

Thomas Freidman writes in the New York Times about 3-baby booms that will define our future, and how we are NOT dealing with them.

The leading edge of the American baby boom generation is now just two presidential terms away from claiming its Social Security and Medicare benefits. "With unfunded entitlement liabilities at $74 trillion in today's dollars - an amount far exceeding the net worth of our entire national economy - and with payroll taxes needing to double to cover the projected costs of Social Security and Medicare, how can any serious person not call entitlement reform the transcendent domestic policy issue of our era?"

This is a problem that must be solved now, before it gets worse. I don't know if George Bush's plan will work or not. I know John Kerry's plan of 'no major changes' will not work.

The second group of boomers barreling down the highway are the young people in India, China and Eastern Europe, who in this increasingly flat world will be able to compete with your kids and mine more directly than ever for high-value-added jobs. ... When was the last time you met a 12-year-old who told you he or she wanted to grow up to be an engineer? When Bill Gates goes to China, students hang from the rafters and scalp tickets to hear him speak. In China, Bill Gates is Britney Spears. In America, Britney Spears is Britney Spears.

This problem needs to be solved soon. I am sure George Bush's education plan doesn't do enough to solve this. The rest of the heavy lifting probably needs to be taken up parents, and perhaps young people themselves. No one is entitled to a good job just because you are an American. You better be prepared to learn the skills you need and work hard, because others will, and no power on earth will be able to keep you employed if you are not employable.

The third group of boomers our next president will have to deal with is from the Arab world. The Arab region has had the highest rate of population growth in the world in the last half century. It has among the highest unemployment rates in the world today. And one-third of the Arab population is under the age of 15 and will soon be entering both a barren job market and its child-bearing years. There are eight Saudis under age 15 for every one between ages 45 and 60.

You think the Arabs are crazy now? Just wait a few years. Demographics is destiny and there are going to be a lot more frustrated young Arabs in a few years unless something radically changes. And we all know how frustrated Arabs seem to react. I don't know if George Bush's plan to democratize the middle-east will work. Even best case scenario it is probably a race with our horse carrying a heavy handicap. The middle-east must change (it will change) soon, for better or for worse. I cannot believe that John Kerry is the leader to deal with such a challenge. Of course we do have a sure fire way of dealing with this problem. A massive nuclear bombardment of the region would solve this issue quite quickly and neatly. I don't want to see that happen. There are few things I can imagine that would be worse. But I could see it happening in the future. I could see it being our only choice if our culture is to survive if we don't fix things there now. Note: Some may consider my comments above about Arabs racist. Let me be clear that I think any group with similar demographic and economic stresses would react in a similar way. As I said above, demographics is destiny. The Arabs do have one other peice against them though, their history of once being a mighty nation, a superpower of their times, makes it perhaps easier for them to slip into a fantasy ideology that leads them to believe they can through simple and violent means return to their former prominence. Italy and Germany embraces similar fantasy ideologies before WWII, with much less historical cause, that mental trap is even more dangerous for the Arab world.