Demography

This is bad news for Democrats.

The center of the Republican presidential coalition is moving toward the distant edges of suburbia. In this month's election, President Bush carried 97 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties, most of them "exurban" communities that are rapidly transforming farmland into subdivisions and shopping malls on the periphery of major metropolitan areas. Together, these fast-growing communities provided Bush a punishing 1.72 million vote advantage over Democrat John F. Kerry, according to a Times analysis of election results. That was almost half the president's total margin of victory. "These exurban counties are the new Republican areas, and they will become increasingly important to Republican candidates," said Terry Nelson, the political director for Bush's reelection campaign. "This is where a lot of our vote is." These growing areas, filled largely with younger families fleeing urban centers in search of affordable homes, are providing the GOP a foothold in blue Democratic-leaning states and solidifying the party's control over red Republican-leaning states.

A few days ago, Brian at Broken Quanta put up this post about how demographic density is a good predictor for voting patterns. Dense areas pretty much always vote democrat while areas with sparser populations vote Republican. I expect that a number of factors influence this, but quality of life is probably not the least. If you are generally happy with the way things are, you live in a nice town with a nice (not necessarily expensive) house and are comfortable with your neighbors, you are likely to have a 'conservative view'. For you, there are no huge problems that need fixing and the status quo is worth maintaining. Added in, you are more likely to have kids, which raises your concerns on moral issues and you quickly become the typical Republican voter. Conversely if you live in a large city, in a small apartment with neighbors you barely know and no deep connections to a community you are more likely to be dissatisfied with the way things are. Add in that you are more likely to be single and free-wheeling and you are a pretty typical democrat. For a variety of reasons, not the least being continued economic good news, this flight to the new suburbs is likely to continue. Good for Republicans, probably good for the county, but bad for Democrats.