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Friday, December 17, 2004

The EU

Timothy Garton Ash has written a thought provoking op-ed on the European Union, and it's strengths. This bit here is interesting, although I am not sure I fully agree with it:

The most immediate challenge, of course, is terrorism. And one could make a strong case that the European Union's agreement to open membership negotiations with Turkey will be a bigger contribution to winning the war on terrorism than the American-led occupation of Iraq. Iraq is now a bloody playground for existing groups of Islamist terrorists - and probably a breeding ground for new ones. The European Union's offer to Turkey, by contrast, sends a clear signal that Europe is not an exclusive 'Christian club,' that the West is engaged in no crusade, and that a largely Islamic society can be reconciled not only with a secular state but also with the rules and customs of modern liberal democracy.
I applaud the decision of the E.U. to include Turkey, although I am unsure that in the long run it will benefit that country. This simple fact though, is that Turkey wanted to join and the E.U. was right to accept them. Time will tell whether that will have a greater effect than Iraq in reforming the Arab nations though. Turkey has been somewhat democratic and pro-West for a long time and that has had only limited effect on it's Arab co-religionists. We can't say yet what effect Iraq will have, I personally am very hopefull that it's effect will be huge. This bit here though I think misses a few points:
Robert Kagan describes the difference between America and Europe as the difference between power and weakness - American power, that is, and European weakness. This description is sustainable only if power is measured in terms of military strength. In the way that some American conservatives talk about the European Union, I hear an echo of Stalin's famous question about the Vatican's power: how many divisions does the pope have? But the pope defeated Stalin in the end. This attitude overlooks the dimensions of European power that are not to be found on the battlefield.
I will never discount the role of the Pope in the fall of communism. Truely that was one of the Catholic Church's finest hours, and the effect of it cannot be overstated. Nevertheless, to say that the Pope won and Stalin lost is a distortion. Without the willingness of the West, the United States in particular, to defend Europe against aggression the collapse of communism might have never happened. American militarism working with the Pope's morality ended communism in a historically unprecidented manner. Either alone would have probably caused a far worse outcome. The second question on dealing with this issue is does the EU, which admittedly has little military power, possess a moral force that is the equivilent of the Pope? In certain areas, I think that this may in fact be true. The EU has demonstrated that nation states can reach agreements even difficult ones, without the need for force of arms. This can indeed be a useful example to the world. I would caution though that ignoring the role of the U.S. as the primary defender of the West over the last half-century in analyzing this phenomenon would be a mistake. As to the equivilence in dealing with the Arab world with the way the Pope confronted the Soviet Union I find the EU sorely lacking. Too often it seems that the EU is prepared to coddle dictators and make excuses for them. While they have certainly condemned terror they seem to have little interest in advancing freedom. Of course, America is not free from this fault either.

9 Comments:

Blogger Al said...

Good post.

I was just reading in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that the EU is pressuring Turkey to recognize Cypress as a separate nation before they allow them in. Apparently with some success, so maybe the EU is capable of mustering some moral force.

12/17/2004 02:40:00 PM  
Blogger Dave Justus said...

Thanks for dropping by Al. I believe that Turkey has indeed agreed to the demands to recognize Cyprus. I saw that news in the headlines this morning.

V.F. That of course does raise one interesting point: As the EU continues to evolve more into a single nation state should they only get one vote at the U.N.? If not, should the U.S. get fifty votes?

12/17/2004 03:28:00 PM  
Blogger The probligo said...

Yeah!! Why not, Dave.

Just as long as the great democratic principles are applied evenly, why should the US not have 50 votes?

Just as long as China has 250 and India 200. That would be fair? No? Why not?

12/20/2004 01:03:00 AM  
Blogger Brian said...

As the EU continues to evolve more into a single nation state should they only get one vote at the U.N.? If not, should the U.S. get fifty votes?It's interesting that you should compare the EU's relationship with its members to the US's relationship with the States in this way. I'd never thought of the EU in those terms, but now that I do .... I think you've got the wrong analogy. The EU is, I think, more correctly compared to the pre-1788 union under the Articles of Confederation.

If you think about it, all the pathologies rampant under the Articles are present in the EU: the constant bickering and power games among States; the attempts by large States to dominate the smaller ones; the utter lack of military power; the broken economy (due largely to fractured, inconsistent policymaking); the diplomatic ineffectualism. Faced with a choice between a single nation and independence for each State, the Continental Congress had chosen a compromise that incorporated the worst features of each.

200 years later, the EU's founding fathers have committed the same error, and for the same reasons. Each member has its own pride and its own reasons to fear a true Union. At the same time, they each know that their only chance to be meaningful world powers is to join together. So what do they do? Exactly what we did: choose a compromise that incorporates the worst features of each. All the old inadequacies have been built into the structure of the EU. Of course, we know how that turned out for us, and I see the same sort of problems beginning to develop in the EU.

There are only two real choices: true Union or true independence. Halfway solutions are unsustainable. With ratification of our Constitution, America chose a true Union. If it is to survive, the EU must do the same. I don't think it can "evolve," as you say, into a single nation. I think the EU, like the US, will have to throw out its old ideas about half-union and start again.

Modern American power was made possible by the men who met in 1787 and had the courage to "form a more perfect Union." If the EU is really to become a single nation, it will need people of such character. Unfortunately for them (indeed, for us all), I don't see any Madisons, Washingtons, or Hamiltons in modern Europe (or modern America, but we don't need them as badly). Maybe they're there, and we just can't see them. In the next 20-50 years, we'll find out. Then your question will be answered: either the EU will truly become one nation (and get the corresponding one vote) or it will cease to exist.

12/20/2004 07:48:00 AM  
Blogger Brian said...

Oh, and probligo: the discussion of the US getting "50 votes" is about whether we should get one for each of the semi-autonomous States that make up our country (you know, like the EU does). Under that reasoning, China would get 34 votes, not 250. (China has 23 provinces, 5 "autonomous regions," 4 "municipalities," and 2 "special administrative regions.") India, meanwhile, would get 35, not 200, for similar reasons.

Of course, all this would be predicated on China granting some meaningful sovereignty to its provinces, which of course it does not: the provincial governments there are just outposts of the central government. So while China is very large, it is still correctly treated as a single political entity. (This may not be the case in India; I know very little about the structure of their government.)

I still happen to think the US is correctly represented by one vote (I beleive our own Constitution requires that, in fact), and that absent a major restructuring the EU is correctly represented by multiple votes. But it may be an interesting problem if the EU ever really does become one nation.

12/20/2004 08:02:00 AM  
Blogger aw said...

Going back to the post, I am also skeptical about Turkey's entrance having a powerful effect on the Muslim world. The problem with Turkey is that it is not an Arab nation, and never has been, and in fact, within 100 years ago, the Turks were still the colonial rulers of most of the Arab world.

I also think that while the EU places a much greater importance on international law and organizations, this does not necessarily indicate a European moral superiority (it all depends on the definition, doesn't it?). You are right that Europe has had the last 50 years under an American umbrella to learn to solve its problems within peacefully.

I'm not sure that the European nations' only options are disbandment and total irrelevance, or total unification and world influence. I DO agree that the middle ground the EU now sits in is unsustainable, and the friction can be seen in any number of issues pressing Europe today (Turkey's admission being one of many).

12/20/2004 08:05:00 AM  
Blogger Dave Justus said...

I certainly don't think that the E.U. is a 'single country' yet and therefore it's votes (or the combined votes of it's members) are fine for now. If the E.U. does continue to evolve toward true unity (a direction they are moving in) it will pose an interesting question and one that will be difficult to resolve.

The question of how similar the E.U. is to the Articles of Confederation is interesting. It has been a while since I studied that period in history, but my impression is that the E.U. is considerable stronger than the central government of the Articles of Confederation was. Now, how much of this power is granted power and how much de-facto power is something I would have to look into.

12/20/2004 09:21:00 AM  
Blogger The probligo said...

Yes, I know (knew) that. I look on democracy as government "by people", hence the commencement of my comment.

I would guess that China has at least 250 times as many PEOPLE as the US. Any other count is essentially meaningless.

12/20/2004 11:46:00 AM  
Blogger Dave Justus said...

You shouldn't have to guess.

The population of the U.S. is about 273 million. The population of China is about 1.3 billion. Which makes China in the neighborhood of 5 times the U.S. population.

I would certainly entertain the idea of China having five times as many votes in the U.N. as the U.S. as soon as China becomes a democratic nation and the will of it's people are reflected by it's government.

Of course I wonder how happy New Zealand would be if Nations had votes in the U.N. in proportion to their population.

12/20/2004 01:26:00 PM  

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