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Wednesday, March 16, 2005

Glimmers of hope in Iran?

Blogger News Network:

Iran experienced anti-mullah uprisings in its major cities, including Teheran, Isfahan, Abressan Junction and Karaj, on the evening of March 15. The 15th was Chahar-shanbeh Souri, an ancient Persian fire festival aimed at driving out bad luck at the end of the traditional Iranian year (which falls on March 21 this year). The uprisings were sharp but apparently limited in scope. Police cars and trucks were burned, along with effigies of Iran's increasingly unpopular government and religious leaders. Despite demands by the Islamic government that citizens stay home and refrain from observing the fire festival, large groups openly disobeyed the edict, while there were reports of any number of clashes with security forces. This could be the beginning of a real revolution. A year or so ago, an Iranian professor came to an American university to give a talk, ostensibly about his discipline but really he was there to talk to other professors; I had the opportunity to attend. His words were completely loyal to his government and supportive of their every policy - and every single person in the room knew that he was lying. He didn't hate his government the way Freepers hated the Clintons, or the way Deaniacs hate Bush today. He was sick of his government - just absolutely filled to the gills with it. I wondered then how representative that pleasant, mild-mannered man was; I wonder less tonight.
I think it is a question of when, rather than if, we will see a serious, mass pro-democracy uprising in Iran. That will force the regime, much like Syria in Lebanon, to either give in or brutally repress. And brutal repression is much less attractive with George Bush in the White House. I am not sure that the 'when' is now though. I would bet it will be in the next couple of years though. (via Vodkapundit)

3 Comments:

Blogger Greg said...

Dave,
I'm not nearly as optimistic about the chances of a peaceful democratization of Iran as I am about progress towards freedom in Lebanon or even Syria.The Iranian regime reminds me in a way of the Chinese and Russian regimes.It's highly oppressive and intolerant of any popular expression of freedom. I don't think democracy has even minor chances in Iran at this point.On a different note, Israel may soon be left with no option but to bomb the Iranian nuclear reactor as was the case with Iraq in 81'.What do you think the American reaction would be if Israel was to carry out such an attack? Keep in mind that last time this happened Reagan took the Arabs' side, blaiming Israel for provoking Saddam.

3/17/2005 05:37:00 AM  
Blogger Dave Justus said...

I am not exactly optomistic that it will be peacefull (that would be nice) but I think change is coming. Whether a brutal crackdown will succeed or not I cannot say.

Later developments have obviously proved Israel right in the Osirak case. I would be disappointed if that were to happen now though. I think that it would be best if America, not Israel bombed the Iranian nuclear sites if bombing them is the right answer.

American public reaction would be divided along relatively predictable lines. As to George Bush's reaction, it would probably depend on a lot of things we will not be aware of. If the European negotiations were actually making serious progress and Israel didn't consult America or acted against it's advice he would probably be very displeased. This might or might not translate into a public condemnation.

3/17/2005 07:15:00 AM  
Blogger Greg said...

Dave,
As you probably guessed, I agree with you 100% that it would be preferable by far if the U.S. was to bomb the Iranian nuclear reactor and not Israel. Only time will show whether the situation escalates into military action, but for now, based on historical data it sure looks like it will. As for Israeli-American relations what can I say...the U.S. is by far Israel's biggest and truest ally and I'm greatful for the help-as is the majority of Israelis.

3/22/2005 09:17:00 AM  

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