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Wednesday, April 13, 2005

The Calm Before the Storm?

Tom Friedman (who is highly endorsed by Andrew Watkins) has some interesting, and disturbing, thought in The New York Times, the final paragraphs:

I fear that when and if the Jihadists conclude that they have been defeated in the heart of their world, they will be sorely tempted to throw a Hail Mary pass. That is, they may want to launch a spectacular, headline-grabbing act of terrorism in America that tries to mask, and compensate for, just how defeated they have become at home. In short, the more the Jihadists lose in Iraq, the more likely they are to use their rump forces to try something really crazy in America to make up for it. So let's stay the course in Iraq, but stay extra-vigilant at home.
Certainly something worth thinking about. There is endless speculation into the mindset and motivations of Al-Qaida types. Some of what they do seems to make sense, other things seem to be extremely bizarre. Partially this is probably due to the fact that they are, all in all, a fairly diverse group. Some of them have concrete political goals, others are merely motivated by a belief in a glorious afterlife. And both of those types are willing to use the rhetoric of the other to promote their views. Add on that some seem to simply by cynical men trying to profit from the gulibility of others. Nonetheless, I think Friedman does have a good intution that when they feel they have lost in Iraq, desperation and anger may well convince them to strive even harder for another stunning attack on America. (via Vodkapundit)


Anonymous tsykoduk said...

Started to write a reply, and it got to long :)

4/13/2005 01:56:00 PM  
Anonymous GUYK said...

Maybe. But there is another possibility. Recent events several of the Islamic Arabic countries indicate that there are many who want a country free of tyanny. That does not mean that they are in love with the USA but that they are sick of the radicals. Without the tacit support of the majoity the radicals will have a tough time operating. Once the majority decides to rat out the radicals it will be all over for them. But again, this might not happen. Best to keep the guard on duty and stay alert!

4/13/2005 02:31:00 PM  
Blogger honestpartisan said...

Ahh, Thomas Friedman. I recommend his book "From Beirut To Jerusalem", incidentally -- one of the best books on the Middle East I've ever read. Unfortunately, since the book came out (in the late '80s, I believe), his writing has gotten more and more insufferable, in my view. His op-ed piece in the Times is rank speculation; there's no authority at all for his ruminations. Sources I've read since then that seem much more credible and grounded in actual reporting show that Al-Qaeda's motivations and their appeal are based in U.S. foreign policy and actions. Until those change Al-Qaeda's going to go on strong, and with enough grass-roots support in the Arab and Muslim worlds to give them space in which to maneuver.

4/14/2005 08:33:00 AM  

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