A chance to avoid the precipice?

Times Online:

Uzbek government troops moved in overnight to retake an eastern border town from a rebel group who had vowed to fight for an Islamic state in the former Soviet republic, residents said today. ... Jeremy Page, a Times correspondent, reported that that troops and police moved into the town of Korasuv in the early hours and appeared to have taken it with minimal force after community elders promised that corrupt local officials would be replaced and the border with Kyrgystan reopened after a two-year closure. "They appear to have done a deal to avoid bloodshed," Page said from the Kyrgyz side of a border crossing near Korasuv that reopened this morning. "Speaking to Uzbeks coming across the border, it became clear that the police and military moved in overnight and retook the city without any fighting." ... US officials, aware that Mr Karimov's Government is a key regional ally in the War on Terror that has allowed the US to set up a major military base, also started to step up their criticism of the Andijan killings. "Reports being compiled paint a very disturbing picture of the events and the government of Uzbekistan’s reaction to them," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said. "It’s becoming apparent that very large numbers of civilians were killed by the indiscriminate use of force by Uzbek forces." Uzbek officials took foreign diplomats and journalists on a lightning-quick tour of Andijan yesterday, showing them a prison and the local administration building and arranging meetings with local officials. The delegation was kept blocks away from the people of Andijan, leaving little chance for an objective assessment of last week's violence. Some diplomats complained the trip was too short and limited to draw conclusions about the violence.

Reading between the lines here, there are some hopeful signs. Retaking the town through compromise rather than violence shows that Karimov is still sensitive to western criticism, and the incomplete diplomatic tour shows that as well. Increased (although mild) criticism from the U.S. is welcome here as well. I will add, that it is quite possible, and even likely, that we have been far more forceful in are criticism in public than we have been in private. Karimov is certainly a thug, but he may have enough self interest to start introducing some reforms and begin to move Uzbekistan toward democracy. I am certainly not betting on that yet, and will be keeping a close eye on developments. The peaceful retaking of Korasuv is certainly a welcome event though. In addition to showing that Karimov has some willingness to bend, it also shows that the Islamist threat in Uzbekistan is over-hyped, which leaves both a chance for real democratic reforms and undercuts Karimov's use of this as an excuse for future violence. There is still a very very long way to go before we can feel happy about Uzbekistan, but even a slim hope is better than none at all.