Good news for Hillary

USATODAY.com: For the first time, a majority of Americans say they are likely to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton if she runs for president in 2008, according to a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll taken Friday through Sunday. The survey shows that the New York senator and former first lady has broadened her support nationwide over the past two years, though she still provokes powerful feelings from those who oppose her. Clinton commands as much strong support -— but more strong opposition -— as George W. Bush did in a Newsweek poll in November 1998, two years before the 2000 election. She is in slightly stronger position than then-vice president Al Gore, the eventual 2000 Democratic nominee, was in 1998. 'Over time, Clinton fatigue has dissipated ... and people are looking back on the Clinton years more favorably,' says Andrew Kohut, director of the non-partisan Pew Research Center. In a Pew poll released this month, Kohut called former president Bill Clinton and the senator 'comeback kids' because of their rising ratings. 'This may also reflect that she has been recasting her image as a more moderate person,' he says.This is incredibly good news for Hillary. Right now she is running against 'unnamed Republican' a mythic figure people can paint their best hopes on. Once an actual Republican candidate emerges, they will have negatives too. Assuming no shenanigans with the methodology, this surver shows she has a great chance to be President. My gut feeling remains that Hillary's chances depend on who the Republicans nominate in 2008. If they nominate Guiliani or McCain, she will have a very tough time as they will be able to strongly target the center while Hillary hatred will keep the base in line. If the Republicans nominate Frist or another social conservative, Hillary will probably be able to snag the center from them, and the overwrought anti-Hillary rhetoric that is sure to emerge will drive even more moderates into her camp. Hillary will beat a strong social conservative by at least 5 points. Another factor that will be going for her is that Americans do tend to want periodic change. Absent a catastrophic event, by 2008 the terror war, while still going on, will have become a secondary issue in most peoples mind, like the cold war was in the 70s and 80s. It will matter, but it won't be many people's number one focus any more. Policy will be more or less established, and Hillary seems unlikely to reverse direction on any of that so the issue will not be polarizingng one. Economically, I expect things to be going quite well in 2008, but how much this will benefit the Republican ticket is questionable. Since I don't expect Cheney to run, it will be tough for the Republicans to gain a lot of traction on a successful economy. Issues such as education and health care, traditionally Democratic strong points will probably have a lot of play as well. One wild card that could really throw a wrench in Hillary's dreams is Condi Rice. She of course claims to have no interest in running for President, but if she decides to it will give Hillary some serious trouble. Rice could make signifigant inroads in both the Black and the Women demographics, enough to put pressure on traditionally safe issues. Like McCain or Guilianni she would profit from Hillary-hatred without having to concede the center. This is the race I would most like to see, it would be fascinating to watch it play out.