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Friday, August 26, 2005

Carrots Are For Rabbits

Gregory Scoblete explains in this TCS article why economic carrots or sticks won't have any effect on Iran or North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons. Military sticks still a possible deterent however. In Iran's case, if they were convinced we would attack them if they did not abandon their nuclear intentions, they would in fact probably abandon those programs. Of course, since we are probably not in fact willing to attack them if they don't disarm, convincing them of this will be difficult. Military action against North Korea is probably even less likely, although China's power over North Korea remains strong enough that it could force NK to abandon it's weapons. Our diplomatic efforts have been focused on getting China to do this, but so far we don't seem to have enough leverage to make this happen. My bet is that the one thing that would make China get motivated, and take decisive action, is a credible threat to arm Japan and South Korea with nukes as a result of North Korean nukes. This approach though has two difficulties. First, both Japan and South Korea would be tough to convince to go along with this. Secondly, the very concept of nuclear non-proliferation goes against using this approach.

5 Comments:

Blogger RFTR said...

Third problem: Japan would have to amend their Constitution in order to even accept that technology, because nukes are strictly aggressive (not defensive).

8/26/2005 12:22:00 PM  
Anonymous tsykoduk said...

Perhaps if we just based Our nukes there...

But then we are in a new cold war. And that would suck.

I say just drop a frigging rock on them from space.

"Hey, Korea - you want nukes? How about some hot meteor loving!?! Iran - we be watching you!"

[Heavy.Sarcasm = Off]

8/26/2005 12:46:00 PM  
Blogger Dave Justus said...

RFTR: That is part of what I meant by getting Japan to go along with it would be tough. Not sure if it would require an ammended constitution or not, a nuclear deterent can be considered a defensive weapon probably, but the Japanese people are strongly anti-nuke and making such a thing happen would be tough.

tsyko: Basing our nukes there wouldn't help. We already have our can have nukes that are closer to both China and NK via are submarines anyway. It is the thought of Japan in particular in control of a nuclear arsenal that would scare the pants off the Chinese.

8/26/2005 01:09:00 PM  
Blogger Cubicle said...

tsykoduk,

"But then we are in a new cold war. And that would suck."

Yea for the other side, because look what happened to russia.

other points,

The answer seems simple to me. A comphenisve and working missle defense sheild. The japs can get what they want with out having to go on the offenisve. And we neuter the commies (china and NK) and protect south Korea as always.

Secondly, If i remember correctly Japan has agreements worked out with us, where we will give them nukes if they need them.

8/27/2005 07:08:00 AM  
Blogger Cubicle said...

Oh and don't forget about pulling the persian rug from underneath Iran.

8/27/2005 07:09:00 AM  

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